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PARIS (Reuters) - Shares in Europe’s major banks lost further ground on Monday, as concerns about Turkey’s deepening currency crisis spread to other emerging markets. The euro zone banking equity index .SX7E was down 1.6 percent, hovering near its lowest level this year and falling for the fourth session in a row. Turkey’s lira pulled back from a record low against the dollar on Monday morning after the central bank pledged to provide liquidity and cut reserve requirements for Turkish banks, but the currency’s meltdown continued to shake global markets. The lira has lost most than 40 percent of its value so far in 2018.
The Russian rouble hit its lowest level since early 2016, under pressure from the lira’s slide and investors’ concerns about new U.S, sanctions against Russia, Shares in European banks were hit across the board for the sterling imperial mother of pearl cufflinks second trading session in a row, with those exposed to Turkey and other emerging markets suffering the steepest losses, “There is a panic move on all emerging market currencies, the stress spreads on the South African rand, the Indian rupee or the Mexican peso,” said analyst Alexandre Baradez from brokerage IG Group..
Shares in Spain’s BBVA (BBVA.MC), Dutch bank ING ING.AS and Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI) - which all have units in Turkey - shed more than 3 percent, extending Friday’s losses. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) fell 1 percent. Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove and Deutsche bank calculated the impact on the four banks of a potential exit from Turkey, including the write-down of their assets there and the loss of intergroup funding. The JP Morgan report said the hit on the core capital would be “a significant but manageable” 87 basis points for ING and 53 basis points for BBVA. UniCredit’s core capital ratio would actually benefit from not having to set aside money for forex losses linked to the lira depreciation. BNP would have a limited capital impact of 3 basis points.
Deutsche Bank saw worst-case scenario equity losses for the four banks at 12 percent of group equity for BBVA, 4 percent for UniCredit and ING, and under 2 percent for BNP Paribas, “This is not our base case, but even if it were to occur, the impact should be manageable for European banks,” it said, A BNP Paribas spokeswoman declined to comment on the analysts figures, UniCredit sterling imperial mother of pearl cufflinks and ING did not immediately comment, BBVA did not immediately comment on the analysts’ data but a spokesman for the bank noted that BBVA’s CEO Carlos Torres recently said every 10 pct depreciation of the lira in Turkey leads to an impact of around 2 basis points on the bank’s capital ratio..
MILAN (Reuters) - Turkey’s economic crisis poses a threat to European banks with business in the country. Spain’s BBVA (BBVA.MC), Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI), France’s BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Dutch bank ING (INGA.AS) and Britain’s HSBC (HSBA.L) are the most exposed to Turkey and vulnerable to its free-falling currency. Analysts see as manageable even a worst case scenario - which they deem unlikely at present - under which these banks would be forced to write off completely their local operations or exit the country.
But Turkey’s trouble are feeding risk aversion among investors, sterling imperial mother of pearl cufflinks who worry about financial market turmoil spreading to other emerging countries or even Italy, which faces key decisions over its budget and credit ratings after the summer, Here is a summary of the five banks’ Turkish exposure and of analyst estimates of the possible impact of the crisis, The Spanish group controls 49.9 percent of Turkish bank Garanti (GARAN.IS) after raising its stake in February last year, Garanti Bank, which has a book value of 4.4 billion euros ($5 billion) for BBVA, had $84 billion in assets as of June 30..
Garanti accounts for around 13 percent of group earnings, according to Deutsche Bank, which estimates that a worst case scenario would wipe around 12 percent off BBVA’s group equity. Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove on Friday cut their 2019-2020 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for BBVA by around 6 percent to take into account a further weakening of the lira and rising credit losses for lenders in Turkey amid slower growth. BBVA said it was comfortable with its stake in Garanti and had great experience in managing businesses in volatile emerging countries under a model which made each unit fully responsible for its own capital and liquidity management, preventing any liquidity transfers from the parent company to the group’s subsidiaries or among them.
BBVA also said it kept a prudent currency hedging policy to curb volatility of the group’s core capital ratio and limit any impact on earnings, A 10 percent drop in the value of the lira takes 2 basis points off BBVA’s core capital ratio, it said, Italy’s biggest bank owns around 40 percent of Yapi Kredi (YKGYO.IS), Turkey’s fourth-largest bank, through a local joint venture, Deutsche Bank estimates a 4 percent hit to UniCredit’s equity in a worst case scenario, However, JPMorgan Cazenove analysts see instead a 59 basis point boost to UniCredit’s core capital in the event of a write-off thanks to lower risk weighted assets and the reversal of currency reserves with a negative value which the bank has sterling imperial mother of pearl cufflinks been forced to increase recently as the lira slid..